Home » SIRTECH CLASSICS » Jagged Alliance 2 » The A.I.M. Library » Chance to hit (CTH) seems predetermined as opposed to random
Chance to hit (CTH) seems predetermined as opposed to random[message #334691] 
Tue, 29 July 2014 23:27  
xerkon


Messages:17
Registered:July 2014 


I'm playing vanilla JA2 for the first time and one thing I've noticed is that if you ever want time to pass in the real world insanely fast, just sit down and play some JA2. I start at some particular time and then what seems to be about an hour later I look at the clock and 5 hours have gone by. :crazy:
But that's not why I'm posting. I've noticed that after loading a save all my mercs taking the same shots end up missing and hitting exactly as they did before I reloaded. Here's an example: I encounter an enemy and save the game. Then I take 3 shots. The first one hits for 14 health, second one misses and hits a rock and third hits again for 37 damage. Now I load the save and take the exact same shots and exactly the same thing happens.
It would seem that at the point I save the game all the chances to hit have already been computed for every merc who might shoot. I guess I figured it would be more random than that. If you really wanted to cheat you could have every merc take shots and then reload and only take the shots that did the most damage the first time. Hmmm...



   
Re: Chance to hit (CTH) seems predetermined as opposed to random[message #334737] 
Fri, 01 August 2014 09:04  
xerkon


Messages:17
Registered:July 2014 


Indulge me this thought experiment. Me and 5 buddies are out in a field somewhere shooting our .22 rifles at a target 100 yards away. You are our shooting coach and you also have a time machine (lucky you ). Once a target has been bull'seyed three times, another target drops down in its place. There is a key element in this competition that must be added because of JA2, and that is the element of action points. In this case we'll call them bullets. Each shooter only has 3 bullets. Once they're gone, they're gone. Best case scenario, ShooterOne hits first target bullseye 3 times, ShooterTwo hits second target bullseye 3 times and so forth. Ideally, six shooters, six targets down.
So, you watch all your shooters and it so happens that ShooterFive hits the bullseye 3 times in a row. Unfortunately, 4 other shooters before him missed or didn't hit bullseye. No big deal. You hop in your time machine, go back 5 minutes and tell shooter 5 to take his shots first. He does, hits bullseye 3 times in a row and then you're on to the next target. You repeat the above sequence until you get the best possible outcome.
However, what happens if there is a random element to the bullet's trajectory after it leaves the gun? Wind? Bullet mass differentiation? Hell, the manual for JA2 even mentions a bird flying in front of a bullet as a chance happening, something that might affect the outcome. What if ShooterFive hits the bullseye only twice, with one near miss, (still the best of all your shooters) and you don't know that going back in time and telling shooter 5 to take his shots first will give you the same results? Do you still do it?
I guess the point I'm trying to make is that you're right, in a sense. You could go back in time over and over until you get a favorable outcome and then move on from there. And that's where time becomes the deciding factor. If there isn't an element of randomness you automatically take the best outcome of the six, no question. Knowing there is going to be a random outcome leaves you thinking that you might do better next time, and then again you might not.
Regardless of the above, there will always be a "randomness" to a bullet's path once it leaves the barrel. I agree that up until that point everything should be set in stone. A person has a certain level of experience and accuracy with firearms. The gun has a level of accuracy that can't change. Those things should be absolutes before the gun fires. But in real life, after the bullet leaves the barrel, there will always be different outcomes, no? And if there is the slightest variance in bullet trajectory on its way to the target there would most certainly be variation in damage done to the target. In this case I'm referring to damage done to the opponents in JA2 which is also predetermined, I think.




Re: Chance to hit (CTH) seems predetermined as opposed to random[message #334818] 
Thu, 07 August 2014 04:26  
Kirill_OverK


Messages:263
Registered:September 2010 


xerkon Then I take 3 shots. The first one hits for 14 health, second one misses and hits a rock and third hits again for 37 damage. Now I load the save and take the exact same shots and exactly the same thing happens.
it will not work!
each factor makes a change in chain of sequences...
so, if you make damage 34\19\15
then after 34 try make not 19, for example .. you need 25 .. 
yes you can but possible after that where you make 15 damage  you can not even hit target.
finally calculating the ideal outcome may take a very long time & loads.

Do not forget  your actions in the course of your time,
reflected during the course of the enemy...
so that after the application of the ideal damage to the enemy,
you can get no less than, even more.
and you need again calculate the entire chain for error correction ...
)
new 1.13 builds  have full random every load. not as in original ja2\ja2:UB ..
but I think the original system of factors was much more interesting.
(like a game in chess, with the calculation of moves)
=======
current system of factors is full random,
so you load\save 10 or 20 or 100 times to get the desired result...
(you will definitely get it)
That's the real fraud !
______
[Updated on: Thu, 07 August 2014 04:30] by Moderator




Re: Chance to hit (CTH) seems predetermined as opposed to random[message #335047] 
Sun, 17 August 2014 23:24  
xerkon


Messages:17
Registered:July 2014 


A fully random outcome seems more realistic, but I guess it depends on what your time machine (reload) does. If I'm out shooting a rifle I'll never have the same shot twice because of all the variables. The only way I could have exactly the same outcome is if I time traveled back and every molecule returned to its original place and then followed the exact same path. I guess this is what the game does when you reload. It sets every value back to exactly what it was at the time of the save and since there aren't any random modifiers you get the same outcome.
I do realize that if something is changed then it breaks the chain. The reason this all came up is I thought I could see how a merc's marksmanship stat affected their hit/miss ratio. I lined up a bunch of mercs all with the same weapon and at the same distance from an enemy and then saved the game. Then the first merc took 3 shots and I wrote down the results, reloaded game and the second merc took 3 shots and so on. I was going to go through this sequence 5 times so each merc would have shot 15 times and then average each one's hits and misses and see how much their marksmanship had affected the outcome. However, when merc 1 took his second round of 3 shots I realized my plan wasn't going to work since his second group of three shots were exactly the same as his first three, as were all the other mercs.
Are you saying that if I were to try this same plan in 1.13 that it would work?




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